Republic of Moldova

International Consultancy for Assessment of the Impact of the Economic Crisis on Poverty and Social Exclusion in the Republic of Moldova (Team Leader) - UNDP Moldova

Vacancy Number: 50 /Of-2009

Background:

The current economic and financial crisis is truly unprecedented. There are a number of principal channels of transmission of the crisis into developing countries: capital flows and bank credit (including capital outflows), drying stream of remittances, trade (and shrinking of external markets in particular), and anticipation of further ‘bad news’.

The impact of the global economic and financial crisis places Moldova at risk of experiencing negative performance in its socio-economic development with an increasing fear of reversal in MDG1 in particular. Many analysts believe that the most damaging potential effect of the economic crisis would be from a significant increase in returned labour from recession-affected recipient countries and subsequent reduction in inward remittances. Remittances have been a powerful anchor for the Moldovan economy (contributing to an estimated 36.2% of GDP in 2007 and estimated above USD 2 billion for salaries earned from abroad for 2008). Recent data from the National Bank of Moldova confirms a continuous fall in remittances amounting to USD 180.79 million in July 2008 to USD 111.03 million in November 2008.

The total number of Moldovans working abroad while still belonging to a household in Moldova is estimated to be around 340,000 (during the third quarter of 2008), with CIS countries accounting for two-thirds of all migrants in 2008. It is predicted that Moldova will experience an increasing return of emigrants, following further contraction in the economy of recipient countries, namely Russia and EU countries.

However, aside from declining remittances, the other channels of crisis transmission will also play an important role, in particular contracting demand for Moldovan export products and reduced demand for imported goods (whereby over 70% of government revenue is dependent on excise and customs duties), falling foreign direct investment (FDI) and subsequent contraction in industrial production.  In a country where over 60% of the government budget is directed to social expenditure, changes in the latter are anticipated.

While the channels of transmission of the crisis and related macro economic implications are relatively clear, it is not completely clear how these will translate into impact on the real life of people.  However, recent developments observed in the country strongly indicate that the impact will disproportionately affect the most vulnerable and marginalized groups as well as create a new generation of the ‘new’ poor.

The immediate effect will be felt on those households who are heavily dependent on remittances, with the risk of families falling (further) below the poverty line. Accordingly to the 2008 Household Budget Survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, over 57% of households are heavily dependant on remittances. Most of such households live in rural areas. 

In addition, in the face of increasing lay offs of workers in recession hit sectors (construction and food and beverages sector have already registered a contraction in output and other sectors are expected to follow suit), the economy will see the emergence of increased vulnerable groups / a new category of the ‘new’ poor in view of reduced income / lack of employment opportunities in the country. The impact on unemployment will be compounded by the return of potentially dozens of thousand returnees.

In parallel, the resulting fall in fiscal space and expected negative impact on spending on social programmes bring increasing risks of a fall in social benefits, with adverse effects on the living standards of households and on the overall social outlook of the country. For instance, this could result into deteriorating health conditions, increased child and maternal malnutrition, increased school drop-out and child labour, increased substance abuse and in violence among others.

Duties and Responsibilities :

In view of the above trends, it is important to analyse the scope and magnitude of the economic crisis, as it unfolds, on various groups of the population, in view of responding to the impact in a more effective, targeted, pro-poor and inclusive manner. Such an analysis should address the multidimensional aspects of deprivation and inequalities since the expected impact will be beyond income poverty and other material deprivation to also include health, education, housing and child malnutrition outcomes among others.

With the unfolding economic crisis, excluded people are likely to be left further behind, and make up an increasing proportion of those who remain in poverty. Poverty reduction policies often fail to reach them unless they are specifically designed to do so.  A social inclusion perspective can thus help sharpen the strategies for reducing human poverty and achieving human development by addressing the discrimination, exclusion, powerlessness and accountability failures that lie at the root of poverty and other development problems and which are exacerbated by the economic crisis.

The scope of the proposed Study will therefore be to assess and estimate the potential impact of the economic crisis on poverty and social exclusion in Moldova and to identify possible measures to mitigate its human costs and avoid a further deterioration in poverty and human development situation in the country.  Falling remittances (and partial return of return labour) as a major channel of crisis transmission, will be at the core of the analysis.

This call for proposals is specifically designed to: i) gain a better understanding of the poverty and social exclusion impact of the financial and economic crisis; ii) support broad based dialogue on policy alternatives and iii) generate policy alternatives or compensatory mechanisms to mitigate the social impact of the crises. The overall objective will be to support the government of the Republic of Moldova in generating policy responses to mitigate the human development impact of these crises and prevent a slowdown in progress made so far towards the achievement of MDGs.

Competencies:

Competencies and Skills:

• Strong analytical skills;
• Good knowledge of the social inclusion/exclusion concepts;
• Ability to work with large datasets and knowledge of statistical analysis software (i.e. SPSS, STATA);
• Familiarity with UN’s mandate;
• Familiarity with European/international standards and best practices would be an asset;
• Excellent writing and communications skills in English;
• Knowledge of Romanian / Russian will be an asset;

Personal Qualities and other requirements:

• Good interpersonal skills, solid judgment/decision making, initiative and creativity;
• Availability to work with UN representatives and Project’s national stakeholders during the indicated/approved period;
• Cultural and gender sensitivity.

Required skills and Experience:

Education:

• Advanced degree in economics, sociology and/or other social science related areas relevant for the assignment;
• Other formal education relevant for the assignment;

Experience:

• At least 10 years of proven experience preferably in social exclusion / social policy areas;
• Working experience and good understanding of statistical analysis and familiarity with SPSS / other statistical software;
• Proven experience in developing analytical works in social policy fields;
• Experience in working with international organizations and UN agencies in particular;
• Working experience in the region and familiarity with Moldova in particular will be an advantage.

Terms of Reference

Interested persons should apply online at the following link:

http://jobs.undp.org/cj_view_job.cfm?job_id=10071

Deadline: 12 May 2009

Only those short listed will be contacted.